Understanding risk: the case of HRT

HRT doubles your risk of suffering dangerous blood clots report the media. However, when you read the BMJ study the researchers report that the absolute risk of a blood clot remains small.

Carl Heneghan discusses baseline risk and how it affects the absolute risk of adverse outcomes. Having an understanding of the absolute effect of HRT on blood clots will help you make a more informed treatment choice.


Use of hormone replacement therapy and risk of venous thromboembolism: nested case-control studies using the QResearch and CPRD databases

BMJ 2019; 364 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4810

Carl Heneghan

Professor of EBM, and Director of CEBM University of Oxford

Competing interests

Carl has received expenses and fees for his media work. He holds grant funding from the NIHR School of Primary Care Research and The NIHR Oxford BRC. CEBM jointly runs the EvidenceLive Conference with the BMJ and the Overdiagnosis Conference with some international partners which are based on a  non-profit model. He is a NIHR Senior Investigator and Editor in Chief of BMJ EBM  



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