COVID-19 Death Data in England – Update 23rd April
April 23, 2020
Jason Oke, Carl Heneghan
Consistent with previous analyses, the peak day of deaths was the 8th of April. The structure of the data is similar across the regions, with the peak in London on the 4th of April, four days ahead of the rest of the country, the 8th of April.
NHS England releases data at 2 pm each day and reports daily count up to the previous day as well as a total figure. We wrote about the problems with reconciling the different data here:
Today’s reported figure is 514 deaths in hospitals in England. These deaths are distributed back to the 25th of March: 31% fewer deaths than a week ago, 16th April (n=740 deaths).
These deaths are distributed across the following days:
and are distributed by region as follows (Today we have added on the South West)
The figure shows the reporting of deaths by NHS England underestimate those reported by ONS – One of the reasons for this is NHS England’s data does not include deaths reported outside hospitals.
Daily reports generally add more to the previous two days (up to a maximum 300 deaths), and can add back to the previous week’s counts (the grey shaded area in figure 2).
16th April update
Tracking mortality over time
Assessment of Mortality in the Covid-19 outbreak
Jason Oke is a senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences. (Bio here)
Carl Heneghan is Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. (Full bio and disclosure statement here)
Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.